A renewable energy lag threatens hydrogen ambitions in Africa

From the newsletter

A new global SDG7 progress report warns that Sub-Saharan Africa’s renewable energy rollout remains “critically behind” global progress, averaging just 40 watts per capita. For a continent banking on green hydrogen, this widening energy gap risks stalling both export ambitions and inclusive local development.

• Green hydrogen production hinges on large-scale, low-cost renewable power. But with Sub-Saharan Africa’s low capacity, the region lacks the energy depth to sustain industrial-scale electrolysis, putting hydrogen plans at risk of outpacing infrastructure reality.

• While many early hydrogen projects are being developed with dedicated off-grid renewable sources, often backed by international investors, the broader growth of the sector still depends on strengthening national energy systems.

More details

• The Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2025 has been developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), UN Statistics Division, the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO). It tracks global progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), which seeks to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.

• The report presents insights into Africa’s energy landscape that could have significant implications for the continent’s nascent green hydrogen economy. It notes that in 2023, Sub-Saharan Africa’s installed renewable energy capacity averaged just 40 watts per capita, well below the developing country average of 341 watts and the 1,162 watts recorded in developed economies. At this level, electricity access is typically limited to basic services such as lighting and phone charging, leaving insufficient capacity to support industrial activity or green hydrogen production.

• This shortfall contributes to delays in achieving SDG target 7.2, which calls for a significant increase in the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030. Although no fixed benchmark has been set, the report warns that current trends, partly driven by underperformance in regions such as Africa, are insufficient to meet this goal or wider climate and development targets.

• While renewable sources account for roughly two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total energy use, the report highlights that the majority of this comes from traditional biomass, including firewood and charcoal. Modern renewables such as solar, wind and hydropower represent only 12 percent of the region’s energy mix, highlighting the limited progress in transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy systems.

• The limited renewable energy capacity raises concerns about the feasibility of Sub-Saharan Africa’s green hydrogen ambitions. Green hydrogen production depends on large, stable and affordable supplies of renewable electricity, resources still out of reach for most countries in the region, according to the report. Without significant improvements in energy infrastructure, many hydrogen strategies may struggle to move beyond the planning stage.

• The situation is compounded by financing constraints. According to the report, although global public financial flows for renewables increased in 2023, much of the funding was concentrated in a small number of countries. Least developed and fragile African states received significantly less. It notes that in 2023, countries such as Sudan and Cabo Verde received less than 10 US cents per capita in renewable energy finance, underscoring the deep disparities in how resources are allocated across the continent.

• Cumulatively, Sub-Saharan Africa received nearly one third of all international public finance for renewables between 2010 and 2023. However, most of this support came in the form of debt rather than grants. The report cautions that this debt-driven model risks worsening fiscal challenges in economies already under pressure and limits the region’s ability to scale up clean energy and green hydrogen projects.

• The mismatch between ambition and capacity presents a serious credibility challenge. Countries including Namibia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritania, Morocco and Kenya have signalled their interest in becoming major hydrogen exporters. Yet the electricity required to support large scale green hydrogen production exceeds the capabilities of current energy systems.

• Still, the report identifies a pathway forward. It calls for accelerating modern renewable deployment in underperforming regions, expanding investment in decentralised energy such as mini-grids and off-grid solar, and strengthening policy frameworks, skills development and knowledge exchange.

Our take

• Africa’s hydrogen promise is real, but so is the risk of misalignment. Without rapidly scaling modern renewables and rethinking how energy investments are structured, the continent could miss both climate and development targets.

• If acted upon, the report’s recommendations could help position green hydrogen as a driver of inclusive and sustainable energy growth. However, without them, Africa may find itself supplying clean fuel to the world while its own people remain without the power they need.

• Africa’s early hydrogen projects may succeed in isolation, but without investment in national grid infrastructure, the sector cannot scale or serve broader development goals.