Opinion: Africa’s green hydrogen potential and momentum remain

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Amid concerns of slowing momentum in Africa’s green hydrogen economy, Prof. Ioannis Tsipouridis of Strathmore University argues that the continent’s potential remains strong, but European appetite has cooled. He sees the current slowdown as an opportunity for African countries to rethink strategies and maximise local value.

• Prof.Tsipouridis is a renewable energy consultant engineer and climate action advocate, and a Senior Research Fellow at Strathmore University. He also serves as Editor of the “Energy Matters to Climate Change” (Emc2) portal and is a member of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty initiative and the Loss and Damage Collaboration Group.

• “From an African perspective this is a good thing, because it gives time to the African governments to rethink their engagement with green hydrogen to make sure that the exploitation of the huge African Green Hydrogen potential is beneficial for Africa too,” he says of the change.

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By Prof. Ioannis Tsipouridis

The first formal, noteworthy mentions of green hydrogen development in Africa appeared around the end of the first decade of this century, but they really took off at the beginning of this decade. There was one point that one wouldn’t be taken seriously, unless one was involved in a Green Hydrogen project in Africa. And it came to pass that this interest subsided, so much so that it led to the profound question: Is Africa’s green hydrogen momentum slowing, or simply entering a more realistic phase?

Or even more strongly:

Was there ever a real green hydrogen momentum in Africa which is now fading out or was it just side effects from the primarily European green hydrogen rush? 

Let’s take a few steps back to consider some facts.

First of all, Hydrogen is not new. Personally, I made its acquaintance in 1977 during my Master’s and then PhD in solar energy, in the University of Leeds, UK, thanks to John Bockris. Hydrogen, the smallest and simplest atom and molecule, is the most abundant element in the Universe, comprising ≈75% of its mass, as hydrogen makes up roughly 90% to 92% of all atoms in the universe. English scientist Henry Cavendish first described hydrogen as an element in 1766. Seven years later, French chemist Antoine Lavoisier gave it the name hydrogen (“water-former” in Greek).

Hydrogen is an energy carrier. It has the highest energy content of any common fuel by weight (about three times more than gasoline), but it has the lowest energy content by volume as a liquid (about four times less than gasoline). It takes more energy to produce hydrogen (by separating it from other elements in molecules) than hydrogen provides when it is converted to useful energy. However, hydrogen is useful as a fuel because it has a high energy content per unit of weight, which is why it is used as a rocket fuel and in fuel cells to produce electricity.

Jeremy Rifkin drew attention to hydrogen large scale use, with his book “The Hydrogen Economy” in the beginning of the century and for many this was the trigger for commercial interest in Green Hydrogen. However, it took quite a few years, to the beginning of the 2^nd decade, before it became officially acknowledged as a green energy alternative and by that, I mean the approval of the required regulations and legislation in Europe and the USA. 

But I believe that the catalyst was the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which meant that Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil gas became finally the liability many were trying to draw attention to, the preceding decades. Europe, although in panic mode, made the, correct in my opinion, decision to put its trust on green hydrogen or in other words on the abundant, inexhaustible, environmentally friendly and cheap renewables.    

This was the international environment that led to the build up of a green hydrogen momentum in Africa, the operative word being “green” because it depended primarily on Africa’s huge, unused renewable potential.  In essence the green hydrogen "momentum" in Africa was - and still is - a mix of genuine huge renewables potential and a "European green hydrogen rush." 

Primarily there are two very crucial parameters that kept the green hydrogen momentum from being realised, as yet. First of all, Green Hydrogen needs economies of scale to be financially viable, because of conversion inefficiencies, which led to the conceptualisation of Mega projects, and this means billions of dollars of investment. Secondly, Africa’s economies don’t need hydrogen at this stage, especially Mega projects. Therefore, any green hydrogen production would target export markets (European). This consideration meant added costs for turning hydrogen into transportable form (liquid chemical solutions) and of course shipping transport costs.  So, the dream became a financing nightmare. By 2026 out of 78 green hydrogen plans with an estimated budget of close to $200 billion, corresponding to many GW of installed renewable capacity, only 17MW were operating. 

However, the major problem, of course, is the cost of producing Green Hydrogen. It is more expensive than Grey, Black, Blue and Orange Hydrogen and more expensive than fossil fuels in general. This, of course, is a distortion of reality that has to do with the principles and operating rules of what is known as the free market. The free market does not consider “externalities” such as the cost of damages to people and environment, as cost items and this leads to lower prices for products and services which are harmful to humans and environment, such as fossil fuels. These costs are paid separately by all of us, in health bills, in costs of climate disasters etc. 

If we could establish market rules which will recognise value for the environment and human life, fossil fuels will be too expensive and then Green Hydrogen would be the obvious choice. Currently this alternative is in the fantasy world, as USA energy politics dictate the exact opposite.

Back to present reality

Therefore, it becomes clear that irrespective of event related parameters, Africa’s Green Hydrogen potential and momentum is here to stay and it's huge. What has changed substantially is the European “Green H2 rush” which subsided and since Africa’s markets, like many other markets are secondary to the global markets, they were bound to follow suit. 

However, from an African perspective this is a good thing, because it gives time to the African governments to rethink their engagement with green hydrogen to make sure that the exploitation of the huge African Green Hydrogen potential is beneficial for Africa too.

For starters the risk of "Green Extractivism" was staring us in the face and warning of impeding “neo-colonial” practices. Producing huge quantities of clean electricity for export, while 600 million Africans still lack basic electricity access should make all think.

Is Africa expected to provide its abundant renewable sources, its land and even its scarce water in some cases and not be the recipient of technology transfer and of manufacturing infrastructure?  

Africa has to find a way to maximise local added value in exploring Green Hydrogen and enjoy all the benefits that nature has endowed Africa with. Then and only then Green Hydrogen will not be a hype for Africa but a real-life changer.