Opinion: The Net-Zero Framework and Africa's opening

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As the International Maritime Organization advances its net-zero framework, Nuru Mohamed of the Kenya Maritime Authority argues that the transition presents an opportunity for Africa to position itself within emerging green maritime fuel supply chains. She says the continent’s geography along major shipping routes could support its development as a key bunkering hub for compliant fuels.

• Ms Mohamed is a water and environmental engineer specialising in maritime decarbonisation, marine pollution control, and coastal systems management. At the Kenya Maritime Authority, she leads work on marine pollution prevention strategies. Her expertise spans environmental impact assessment, monitoring, compliance, policy advisory, and data-driven strategies for sustainable, low-carbon maritime operations. 

• “Africa’s opportunity lies in how fuel transition and operational efficiency intersect with its existing strengths. As standards tighten, demand for compliant fuels along key routes from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope creates a realistic opening for ports to develop as bunkering hubs—if infrastructure, safety systems, and regulatory alignment are put in place early,” she says.

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By Nuru Mohamed

The maritime world has continued to unpack its concerns around the establishment of a robust greenhouse gas (GHG) framework, and what this means for Africa is still taking shape. The continent is not a single negotiating bloc in practice, its positions are influenced by differences in fleet ownership, economic resilience, energy capacity, and regulatory readiness. What is emerging is less a binary debate and more a search for a workable compromise. The most recent session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84) at the IMO reinforced this reality, with Member States divided on how quickly and how firmly the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) should be implemented, and how its costs and benefits should be shared. 

At the center of these discussions is the transition to low- and zero-carbon fuels. The NZF is expected to introduce lifecycle-based fuel standards and market measures that will gradually penalize carbon-intensive fuels while rewarding cleaner alternatives. However, MEPC 84 showed that an agreement on the structure of these measures is still unsettled. Concerns were raised around the fairness of a global carbon pricing system, the readiness of alternative fuels, and the risk of shifting disproportionate costs onto developing economies. For Africa, where many economies are heavily dependent on maritime trade but have limited control over shipping fleets, these concerns are practical, not theoretical. 

At the same time, the technical direction is becoming clearer. The IMO is advancing lifecycle assessment guidelines that will determine how fuels are evaluated from production(well) to use(wake). This is a critical development. It means that future competitiveness in maritime fuels will depend not only on production capacity, but on the ability to demonstrate low emissions across the entire value chain. Where an African country has strong renewable energy potential, this creates a pathway into the market—but only if supported by credible data, certification systems, and transparent reporting. Without these, even the most competitive green fuel projects may struggle to access global demand.

 There is also a more silent shift happening alongside the fuel debate. The MEPC 84 continued to refine operational measures such as energy efficiency standards and carbon intensity indicators. These are already influencing how ships operate today, reducing emissions incrementally while the fuel transition catches up. African ports and maritime administrations will need to engage not only in long-term fuel strategies, but also in immediate efficiency and compliance frameworks that shape trade competitiveness. 

Africa’s opportunity lies in how fuel transition and operational efficiency intersect with its existing strengths. The continent is well positioned geographically along major shipping routes, from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope and across the Western Indian Ocean. As fuel standards tighten, vessels will need reliable access to compliant fuels along these corridors. This creates a realistic opening for African ports to develop into bunkering hubs for green fuels, provided that infrastructure, safety systems, and regulatory alignment are put in place early.

Looking beyond the ports, the implications extend well into industrial development. Green hydrogen and its derivatives are not only maritime fuels; they are also inputs for fertilizers, steel, and other industries. If approached strategically, the NZF could support broader economic activity, linking energy production with manufacturing and export markets. This is where the conversation shifts from compliance to positioning. The question to be realized now is on how much value Africa will retain from that participation.

 But like all other transformative developments, we also need to take heed of the risks. In this case, if the framework evolves without mechanisms that recognize differing national capacities, African economies could face higher shipping costs without corresponding gains in fuel production or supply chains. This is why the ongoing negotiations matter. Issues such as revenue redistribution from carbon pricing, flexibility in compliance pathways, and support for infrastructure development are not side discussions, they will determine whether the transition is inclusive or uneven.

 MEPC 84 did not resolve these questions, but it clarified the trajectory of concerns. The NZF is moving forward, shaped by negotiation rather than consensus, and grounded increasingly in technical standards and data requirements. Africa has a window of influence which if engaged effectively now, (through coordinated positions, investment in data systems, and early infrastructure planning) will define whether the continent becomes a supplier and service hub within the emerging fuel economy, or remains exposed to its costs.

 The transition in shipping is often framed as a climate obligation. In practice, it is also a restructuring of global fuel supply chains. Africa has the resources, the geography, and the growing policy awareness to take part in that shift. What remains is to align these elements with the evolving framework, and to negotiate from a position that recognizes both the risks and the opportunities ahead.