Q&A: The viability of green ammonia production in Kenya

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As Kenya leverages its renewable energy potential to produce green ammonia, Sandra Banda says the biggest risks are not technical but economic. Farmers, she notes, are more concerned about cost than climate credentials, while high capital costs make projects difficult to finance. These barriers risk stalling Kenya’s hydrogen-to-fertilizer transition.

• Ms Banda is a Technical Advisor at GIZ Kenya, supporting the implementation of Kenya’s Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap. She contributed as an independent expert to the report Renewable Ammonia: Kenya’s Business Case by H2Global Foundation, Fraunhofer IEE, and Strathmore University, published in August 2025.

• In an interview with Hydrogen Rising, the mechatronics engineer breaks down the report’s findings, arguing that modular, on-site ammonia production for farms and industries could demonstrate early success, while macroeconomic reforms to lower financing rates are essential to attract investment.

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The views expressed in this interview are solely those of Sandra Banda in her capacity as an independent expert in the aforementioned report

Kenya’s abundant RE gives it a strong technical edge in renewable ammonia production, but the report notes that significant economic risks still hinder project development. In your view, which of these risks are most critical to address first, and what practical steps could help de-risk early projects? 

Sandra Banda: Adoption of renewable ammonia could be the biggest risk because farmers are already accustomed to fertilizers like DAP, CAN, and NPK. But now renewable ammonia is being introduced into the fertilizer stream as a nascent alternative, and awareness among farmers is low. Most farmers don't care whether fertiliser has been produced from renewable sources or not. Their biggest concern is cost. Another risk is how to present renewable ammonia in the country. Doing so requires more resources and a lower cost of capital. Our high cost of capital is a particular barrier because green hydrogen projects are capital-intensive, making it harder to attract investment. 

One way to de-risk the projects is by improving macroeconomic stability. This means looking at indicators like inflation and country’s specific risk and seeing how we can have a more stable economic environment for business. For example, how can we bring down our cost of capital to maybe around seven to eight percent, so that now we can also make our country a bit more investor-ready. Another thing that we can also help to de-risk is also showing the socio-economic impact of renewable ammonia production projects. For example, what kind of avenues it will open up, what kind of jobs can it create, what kind of infrastructure can be developed as a result of this new technology. 

If renewable ammonia itself is more costly than conventional ammonia as the report indicates, what factors make renewable ammonia–based fertilizers potentially 10–30% cheaper in Kenya’s domestic market?

Sandra Banda: For this report, we looked at specific sites in Kenya that would be suitable for renewable ammonia production. This was around Lake Turkana, Lake Victoria, and the Mombasa port. Turkana, for example, has abundant renewable energy resources. These regions, because of their high renewable potential, can achieve a high-capacity factor for running electrolysers. In Turkana Central, the report highlighted 1,848 hours of rated capacity annually. For a solar plant, that corresponds to a capacity factor of 21%, which is quite strong. With this capacity factor, the electrolysers can run longer, producing more hydrogen and making renewable ammonia potentially more cost-competitive. That is what makes this report kind of highlight the probability of renewable ammonia being slightly cheaper. 

But the report also emphasizes the need for infrastructure development. In Turkana, for example, the new wheeling regulations allow renewable energy to be produced in one region and delivered to a production facility elsewhere. Because Nairobi tends to be the country’s main marketplace, you could produce electricity in Turkana, wheel it down to Nairobi, and keep production closer to the market. Mombasa presents a different opportunity primarily for shipping and for producing renewable ammonia for sustainable aviation fuels. Overall, the report looks at the natural resources Kenya has, while highlighting the infrastructure needed to make renewable ammonia production viable.

Still on Turkana South and Mombasa, the report finds that production costs are still roughly twice those of fossil ammonia exceeding the “green premium” for renewable ammonia which the market is willing to pay. In your view, what could be done to close this cost gap for Kenya? 

Sandra Banda: Beyond the risk of adoption, the report also looks at how the Kenyan market benefits from this emerging technology, advantages that are unique compared with other countries. Kenya can pursue a scaled-up approach by building large hydrogen or green ammonia plants, while also using modular plants to strengthen the business case for the country. For example, the Talus plant in Naivasha produces ammonia on-site. Comparing its production and offtake with the existing fertilizer ecosystem where imported fertilizers are blended and transported shows that medium to large-scale farms could benefit from on-site renewable ammonia, solid business case over five to ten years for the value this technology brings, at least in the case of fertilizer.

In Turkana, wheeling regulations could allow electricity to move between sites. Mombasa already has shipping infrastructure, including a port, which could support renewable ammonia for sustainable aviation fuel. Strategically placing production plants in these regions can maximize both industrial and energy benefits. Hydrogen also offers long-term advantages for industrial development, particularly for urbanized industries. Of course, more research and development is needed, especially to bring down electrolyser costs globally, but Kenya can begin taking scalable steps to demonstrate why renewable ammonia makes sense for the country.

The report positions Kenya’s hydrogen sector at a crossroads: serving domestic food security through fertilizer or positioning Mombasa as a global bunkering and export hub. Which pathway do you think will dominate Kenya’s trajectory, and why? 

The fertilizer pathway dominates. Fertilizer is a major contributor to Kenya’s GDP through agriculture, so it represents a low-hanging fruit and the easiest entry point into the sector. It’s what can realistically work for us. That said, this doesn’t mean we can’t explore green ammonia applications in other sectors. The country is already assessing which pathways make sense. We can move in parallel, but if I were to pick the area that will hit the mark first, it would be fertilizer given Kenya’s agricultural progress, available land, and ongoing focus on food security. At the same time, Kenya’s strategic position in East Africa, with a busy port in Mombasa, offers additional opportunities for revenue streams through shipping and sustainable aviation fuel. So, while fertilizer may lead the way, other applications should not be ignored.

Based on your involvement in this study, what one or two urgent policy or regulatory moves should the government prioritize in the next 2–3 years to unlock this opportunity? 

Looking ahead, I see opportunities where government intervention could play a role. First, developing instruments to support resource mobilization in the sector is critical. Second, there’s a need to assess which sectors could benefit most from these technologies and where gaps exist. This could include reviewing existing policies that could include exploring the integration of green ammonia into the agricultural sector, and exploring regulatory instruments for industrialization to identify how green hydrogen can enhance key industries. For example, while Africa’s emissions are relatively low at around 4%, there’s an opportunity to develop greener industries in Kenya.

Many industries already supplement their energy with rooftop solar, but we could go further into using green hydrogen in industries such as the chemical, steel and cement sectors. So, it’s really about seeing which industries are going to be impacted by these new technologies, and that’s probably what will happen over the five to ten years.  years. And of course, as I mentioned earlier, resource mobilization, can we get more resources, more capital into the country to advance this sector? I foresee that being something the government could prioritize.

Based on your work on this study, what are the next steps for translating these findings into actionable insights for Kenya’s hydrogen and green ammonia sector?

The study has resulted in the Kenya PtX Atlas, which provides detailed insights into the potential for ammonia production from renewable energy across Kenya. It offers a high-resolution site analysis that considers land availability, economic factors, and sustainability criteria. The Atlas also includes evaluation scores for regions based on hybrid solar-wind potential, helping stakeholders identify the most promising sites for development. The Atlas will be launched on September 23 in a webinar hosted by Fraunhofer, one of the report’s authors. This is an opportunity to get to know the Kenya PtX-Atlas live in an interactive expert web session.

(Register for the Kenya PtX Atlas launch webinar here)