Q&A: Why geothermal could give Kenya an edge in green hydrogen

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As African countries position themselves within the emerging green hydrogen economy, Kenya is leveraging its geothermal potential as a competitive advantage. According to Paul Wambugu of KenGen, geothermal’s high availability could improve production economics compared to models relying primarily on solar and wind power. 

• Mr Wambugu is the Investment Manager at Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen), the country's largest electricity producer. He is a key member of the team that is working to develop the first commercial-scale green hydrogen plant in Kenya and has since consulted with governments and organizations around the globe on implementing similar projects. 

• “One key distinction between geothermal and other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind is availability. Geothermal is about 98% available, meaning electrolysers can be utilised much more consistently and you do not have to invest as heavily in storage,” he says.

More details

• Kenya is often described as having one of Africa’s strongest green hydrogen potentials because of its geothermal resources. How important is geothermal in giving the country a strategic advantage compared to green hydrogen models elsewhere in Africa that rely mainly on solar and wind?

   

  Paul Wambugu: Renewable energy, especially solar and wind, has one characteristic: it is intermittent. Solar is available during the day, while wind blows at certain times. That said, Kenya is on the equator, so it has very good solar irradiation, and we are also located along some major wind corridors, meaning we have strong wind resources as well.

   

  However, geothermal is distinctly different from these two because it is about 98% available. That means a geothermal plant can run almost throughout the year, compared to solar, which effectively operates at around 20% to 30% of the time annually, and wind, which is slightly below 40%. So, one key distinction between geothermal and other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind is availability.

   

  Geothermal’s higher availability means that if you have an electrolyzer, it can be utilised much more consistently, and you do not have to invest as heavily in storage. Hydrogen storage itself comes with significant costs because it has to be compressed and stored under specific conditions, which increases the overall cost of production.

  So geothermal has that distinct advantage, and that is why we are trying to take advantage of the geothermal resources available in Kenya.

   

  Are there already projects in Kenya exploring the use of geothermal energy for green hydrogen production?

   

  Paul Wambugu: Yes. There’s one major project the government is pursuing — the Kaishan project at Olkaria by the Chinese. It is expected to utilise about 165 megawatts of geothermal power.

  It will take steam from KenGen, convert that steam into electricity, then use the electricity to produce green hydrogen and eventually green ammonia. So that is one of the key projects currently under development. There are also other projects in the pipeline, including some looking at synthetic fuels and e-methanol. We have a number of emerging projects targeting geothermal power, largely because of the high availability it offers.

   

  One concern often raised around green hydrogen in Africa is whether renewable energy could be diverted from domestic electricity needs toward industrial hydrogen production, especially in regions still facing energy poverty. In Kenya’s case, how can geothermal resources be balanced between supporting green hydrogen development and meeting the country’s domestic energy needs?

   

  Paul Wambugu: That’s an international conversation, especially because green hydrogen is power-hungry. It consumes a lot of electricity. So the concern about people lacking access to electricity because power is being used for hydrogen production is a valid one. However, if you look at electricity consumption in Kenya, we have two major peaks — one in the morning when people are waking up and preparing to go to work, and another in the evening when people return home.

   

  But the rest of the day and night, demand drops significantly to what we call the base load. So, if you have these sharp peaks in the morning and evening, it also means there is a lot of stranded capacity during off-peak periods. So, what we're thinking about is that, one, by bringing in green hydrogen, you give yourself an opportunity to improve the utilization of electricity in the industry. This creates an opportunity to increase the base load so that demand is more stable and industrial consumption becomes much higher and more consistent. But secondly, you also have to do very good planning. In Kenya, we have what is called a Least Cost Power Development Plan, where we plan electricity generation based on projected demand.

   

  The idea is to avoid a situation where industries or hydrogen projects consume more power than the system can support, forcing the country into load shedding in order to supply industry. We do not want to move in that direction, and the solution is going to be to plan effectively

   

   

  Despite geothermal’s high reliability, what challenges could still affect its scalability for green hydrogen production in Kenya?

   

  Paul Wambugu: There are some challenges. The biggest one, of course, is cost. People often say the cost of geothermal power is high, and that remains a major concern. But as I said earlier, geothermal also comes with significant advantages. So, a big challenge calls for big solutions. There are now conversations around how to reduce the cost of electricity. One of the ways is to use the cost of finance. How do we reduce the cost of finance? By attracting investors who are willing to risk and understand the risks of geothermal. Therefore, it reduces the cost of electricity coming from geothermal. Another area is manufacturing — particularly how to reduce the cost of equipment needed to produce electricity

   

  What do you believe is the single most important step Kenya must take to fully realise the potential of geothermal energy within its green hydrogen ambitions?

   

  Paul Wambugu: The one thing that I believe could transform geothermal power in Kenya is for the country to make a strategic decision to go big on green hydrogen. That would mean bringing together academia and industry to find solutions that can make green hydrogen competitive — not just for Kenya, but globally — so that Kenya becomes a hub for exporting green hydrogen to the world.

   

  We already have some of the best resources. We have renewable energy potential in geothermal, wind and solar. We have land, water and a highly educated population.

  Green hydrogen presents an opportunity to leverage those resources and position Kenya as a major player in the global market.

  The global green hydrogen market is now estimated at around $500 billion, while Kenya’s economy is about $125 billion. So, if Kenya decided to go big on green hydrogen and captured even 10% of global demand, that could potentially add another $50 billion to the country’s GDP. The resources are already here. We have geothermal, solar, wind, water and people. What remains is technology, know-how, research and development, and continued efforts to bring down the cost of hydrogen.”

   

  You have worked with governments and organisations globally on green hydrogen development. From that experience, how do you assess Africa’s competitiveness within the emerging global green hydrogen economy?

   

  Paul Wambugu: Africa is extremely competitive. The only challenge is that we are often not at the table when these conversations are happening. So, we are competitive, but we need to organise ourselves more effectively as one unit. We still face challenges, especially around knowledge and capacity. In terms of critical minerals, renewable resources and human capital, we have all the raw materials needed to build a strong business case for green hydrogen. But we need to work together better.

   

  The Europeans operate as a union. They sit together, they talk, they organise. The same applies in America and across parts of Asia, where industries coordinate through large regional associations. In Africa, we have the African Union, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done, especially around trade and industrial collaboration. Not necessarily on the political side, but on the business side, there is a real need to bring African countries together so that we can build regional value chains and interconnect our industries. We need to work together as brothers rather than constantly competing and undercutting one another.

   

  So, for us as a continent, the biggest thing is unity — unity in how we approach solutions for our people. One of the areas that we can now start unifying around is green hydrogen. Because green hydrogen is just starting. The sector is just starting out, which creates a real opportunity for Africa to come together and say: we will pursue this market collectively as one continent. We can develop common standards, aggregate demand and supply, and create regional markets. That is how Africa can truly transform its position in the global green hydrogen economy.